According to Lang Marketing, U.S. new light vehicle sales will average just 15.2 million units in 2025 and 2026, pressured by tariffs and other factors. From 2020 through 2026, more than 16 million fewer cars and light trucks will be sold compared to the 2015–2019 average of 17.3 million.
This shortfall will slow growth in Vehicles in Operation (VIO). However, the reduced scrappage rate since 2022 has allowed millions of vehicles to remain in service, softening the negative impact on VIO growth.
Aging Fleet Fuels Aftermarket Demand
Over 90% of the unsold vehicles are Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) models. Nearly all of the million vehicles spared from scrappage are also ICE-powered, which is significant since older vehicles require more replacement parts per mile. As a result, aftermarket product demand will rise sharply, outpacing what would have been generated by the missing new vehicles.
The average age of the vehicle population will climb, with record numbers of older cars and trucks accumulating higher mileage. This trend will provide strong support for aftermarket product sales through at least 2030.
Shifts in Foreign and Domestic Aftermarket
Foreign nameplate aftermarket growth will continue as their share of new vehicle sales rises. Yet millions of older domestic vehicles will remain on the road due to slow scrappage, temporarily moderating growth in foreign parts demand.
The declining volume of vehicles aged 6 to 10 years—the traditional “repair sweet-spot”—is also reshaping the aftermarket. By 2030, this group will shrink by nearly 15% compared to mid-2023. Still, aftermarket sales will not decline, as total miles traveled will be absorbed by older vehicles that require more repairs and parts per mile than newer ones.
Outlook Through 2030
While new vehicle sales remain depressed, the aftermarket stands to gain significantly. ICE vehicles, aging fleets, and higher mileage will drive parts and service demand, ensuring a positive outlook for the aftermarket. The only categories under pressure will be products tied closely to newer vehicles, such as tires and accessories.
Text credit : Lang marketing
Picture credit : Adobe Stock
