Four structural forces are permanently slowing new vehicle sales — and creating unprecedented opportunities for Canadian repair shops and parts distributors.
According to Lang Marketing’s analysis, the U.S. new-vehicle market will fall more than 18 million units short between 2020 and 2030 compared with the record annual pace of 17.2 million sales from 2015 to 2019. For 2026, Lang Marketing projects sales of 15.8 million units, with an average of approximately 16 million per year through 2030. This structural contraction — directly applicable to the Canadian market — is driven by four persistent forces: record-high new-vehicle prices, longer, more expensive financing, improved vehicle durability, and longer ownership cycles.
Prices and payments are shutting out middle-class buyers.
The average new vehicle price in the U.S. climbed nearly 50% over the past decade, from roughly $34,000 in 2015 to over $49,000 in 2025. Entry-level vehicles under $20,000 have virtually disappeared. Meanwhile, average loan terms stretched from 60 to 69 months, with monthly payments reaching a historic high of approximately $700. New vehicle buyers are now keeping their vehicles an average of eight years before replacing them, up from 6.5 years in 2015. These trends apply directly to the Canadian market, where new vehicle pricing has followed a similar trajectory.
Five major impacts on the Canadian aftermarket
The contraction of new vehicle sales will have deep and lasting implications for the Canadian aftermarket. The aging vehicle fleet — dominated by internal combustion engine models — will set new average age records virtually every year through 2030. Owners holding onto their vehicles longer will increasingly visit dealerships for repairs over more years, shifting DIFM market shares. Most significantly, parts proliferation will accelerate sharply, requiring Canadian manufacturers and distributors to maintain inventories spanning an ever-wider range of vehicle ages in operation.
Source: Lang Marketing, 2027 Lang Aftermarket Annual, Jim Lang, August 19, 2026.
Image credit: AI-generated image.
