Fleet aging, not volume growth, became the primary driver of parts sales — a structural trend that will benefit Canadian shops and distributors for years to come

According to Lang Marketing’s analysis, the automotive aftermarket achieved a remarkable feat between 2020 and 2025: it grew at an annual rate of 2.4%, more than tripling the pace of vehicle population growth, which averaged only 0.7% per year over the same period. This historic decoupling between fleet growth and parts sales growth marks a fundamental break from previous decades.

Aging, the aftermarket’s new growth engine

Before the pandemic, between 2015 and 2019, the aftermarket had already outpaced fleet growth by roughly one-third. But from 2020 to 2025, a true acceleration took hold. The cause was not the addition of more vehicles — the fleet recorded one of its weakest growth periods in five decades — but rather the aging of existing vehicles. Over six years, average annual parts use per vehicle surged by more than 15%, and this single factor accounted for approximately 90% of total light-vehicle aftermarket growth between 2019 and 2025.

Lasting opportunities for the Canadian industry

For Canadian mechanical shops, collision centres, and parts distributors, this dynamic is excellent news. The population of vehicles 15 years and older continues to reach record levels, and each aging vehicle consumes more parts per year. Lang Marketing projects this trend will continue, driving aftermarket sales well beyond what fleet volume growth alone would have suggested.

Picture credit : AI generated