A text written by Sylvain Richard and published by Innoviste on September 16, 2026.
The breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States is ushering in a period of uncertainty for Quebec’s automotive aftermarket. Costs, lead times and margins will be put to the test. However, the sector enters this period with major strengths: a substantial vehicle fleet, recurring demand, a strong local service network and a proven ability to adapt.
One Disruption, Multiple Shocks
A tariff is never passed through in a perfectly uniform manner. Its impact varies depending on the actual origin of the part, its customs classification, its North American content and the measures actually in effect. Added to this are the exchange rate, border delays, the cost of credit and precautionary inventories. In the immediate term, uncertainty could therefore be just as significant as the tariff itself: businesses will have to contend with less predictable replacement costs and quotes with shorter validity periods. [S1] [S3] [S19]
The impact will also differ from one link in the supply chain to another. Manufacturers and exporters are the most directly exposed to tariffs and U.S. orders. Distributors bear the cost of inventory and financing. Repair shops and collision repair facilities are primarily affected by delays, price changes and lost labour hours. The disruption therefore does not mean a widespread shutdown, but rather increased pressure on supply chain efficiency and profitability. [S9] [S11]
A Huge Sector… with Small Teams
In June 2026, the broad sector encompassing vehicle and parts sales as well as repair and maintenance services included 19,454 business locations in Quebec. Of these, 9,191 were classified as having no employees, while 4,912 had between one and four employees. As a result, 72.5% of locations operated with no reported employees or with teams of four people or fewer. These figures refer to business locations, not necessarily unique legal entities, but they clearly illustrate the central role played by small organizations. [S27] [S28]
This structure creates financial vulnerability, as smaller teams have less purchasing power and inventory capacity. It is also a strength: close relationships with customers, quick decision-making, in-depth knowledge of the local vehicle fleet and flexibility in finding solutions. The sector’s resilience will depend largely on this day-to-day agility, which independent businesses already know well.
Solid Demand, but Profitability Must Be Watched
The Quebec vehicle fleet remains the sector’s main source of strength. The SAAQ reported 7,280,404 vehicles in circulation in 2025, 90,809 more than in 2024. These vehicles will continue to require tires, brakes, diagnostics and repairs. Higher new-vehicle prices could even extend vehicle ownership periods and support certain aftermarket activities. [S14]
The greater challenge will lie in the economic quality of that demand. In 2025, Quebec imports from the United States totalled at least $875.9 million for other automotive parts and $748.1 million for tires, representing an observable minimum of $1.624 billion. A more expensive part squeezes margins; an unavailable part ties up a service bay, requires a second appointment and reduces billable hours. Businesses could therefore remain busy while seeing their productivity and profitability come under pressure. [S12]
On the consumer side, urgent work is likely to be prioritized, while preventive maintenance, detailing, accessories and certain non-critical repairs could be postponed. This selectivity does not eliminate the need for service; it changes the mix of work and increases the importance of a trusted relationship with the customer.
Employment May Appear Stable While Productive Capacity Declines
Innoviste’s most recent sectoral assessment estimated that the sector studied accounted for 117,249 jobs and contributed $7.6 billion to GDP. It had already identified significant needs for automotive service technicians, as well as autobody repairers and collision repair technicians. These figures provide a structural benchmark rather than a measure of conditions in 2026, but they serve as a reminder that labour shortages predate the trade conflict. [S15]
In the short term, employment could adjust quietly through positions left vacant, reduced hours or departing employees who are not replaced. At the same time, technological complexity will continue to increase with electronics, advanced driver assistance systems, electrification and calibration. The number of workers will remain important, but the mix of available skills will become even more critical. This reality places greater value on experience, versatility and knowledge transfer.
The Shock Reaches the Customer
For consumers, the disruption will take a tangible form: higher prices, revised quotes or longer delays. These effects will weigh more heavily on lower-income households and in regions where a vehicle is essential. Postponing work on tires, brakes or steering can also raise safety concerns. Nevertheless, the density of Quebec’s automotive service network and the proximity of repair shops provide an important buffer: service remains local, accessible and rooted in trusted relationships.
In the Medium Term, the Market Could Consolidate
If uncertainty persists for six to 24 months, parts inventories and product ranges are likely to be rationalized, sourcing partially diversified and some consolidation accelerated. Networks will benefit from their purchasing volume, while independent businesses will retain advantages in specialization, speed and proximity. The market could become more concentrated, but above all, it is likely to reorganize around more diversified supply chains and improved inventory visibility.
Constraints could also increase the value of reconditioning, remanufacturing, component repair and reuse. This circular economy will not replace new parts, but it can support local activities and reduce certain dependencies. Over a two- to five-year horizon, Quebec’s automotive aftermarket could therefore become more hybrid, more technical and more resilient.
What the Coming Months Will Reveal
The coming months will be challenging, but they do not call into question the sector’s fundamental purpose. Vehicles need to stay on the road, businesses and households need mobility, and local expertise remains essential. The real issue will be less about whether demand exists and more about the sector’s collective ability to maintain availability, productivity and skills. In all three areas, Quebec’s automotive aftermarket already has a strong culture of adaptation.
Main Sources
S1 — Federal Register. Proclamation 11048 — Automotive tariffs, July 23, 2026.
S3 — The White House. Temporary suspension of additional duties, August 18, 2026.
S9 — Bank of Canada. Monetary Policy Report, July 15, 2026.
S11 — Bank of Canada. Impact of trade restrictions by industry, April 29, 2026.
S12 — Institut de la statistique du Québec. Products imported into Quebec, 2025, March 30, 2026.
S14 — SAAQ. 2025 Annual Management Report, April 2026.
S15 — Innoviste / CSMO-Auto. Automotive Services Sector Diagnostic, 2023.
S19 — Finance Canada. Canada’s tariffs: automobiles, June 19, 2026.
S27 — Statistics Canada. Canadian Business Counts, with employees, June 2026, August 14, 2026.
S28 — Statistics Canada. Canadian Business Counts, without employees, June 2026, August 14, 2026.
Picture and text credit : Innoviste
