Three structural factors offset shrinking repair-age sweet-spot through 2032.

According to Lang Marketing, the repair-age sweet spot — vehicles between 6 and 12 years old that generate the highest rates of aftermarket product use — will begin to shrink this year, losing approximately 8 million units by 2030. The decline stems largely from reduced new vehicle sales since the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the market in 2020, and has prompted concern among some industry observers.

However, Lang Marketing forecasts continued healthy aftermarket growth through 2032, driven by three key factors. First, older vehicles generate more wear and tear per mile than newer ones, leading to greater demand for parts. Second, billions of annual miles are shifting toward older vehicles as newer units remain scarce. Third, the overall vehicle age profile is moving sharply toward cars and light trucks over 12 years old, a segment set to reach record population levels starting in 2027. For Canadian parts distributors, jobbers, and repair shops, this structural shift signals the proliferation of parts and sustained demand — particularly for older-vehicle applications that will increasingly define the aftermarket landscape.

Picture credit : ADOBE STOCK